Probability and Statistics (math 040-04) Spring 2005

Class meets at 1:15 in REISS 262 on MWF, Reiss 284 T.

Last updated 2/6/05.

New section on projects just added. See below.

You can reach me by voice-mail at 7-2703 or by e-mail kainen at georgetown.edu - and you can reach the class grader, Bob Geng, at bg25@georgetown.edu - he will also hold some occasional review sessions on weekends.

See the index page for information on office hours and location. Students in elementary classes (up to Math 040) can usually find tutoring services at the Math Assistance Center, which is located in Reiss 256 from 6 to 9 pm Sunday through Thurs.

Other general information, including for other courses, on the index (classroom) page . Back to the probstat page.

The text is Stats by De Veaux, Velleman, and Bock, Pearson Addison-Wesley 2005. We will cover most of the material in the first 26 chapters, though not in the order in which they occur in the text.

An outline of main topics for the first part of the course is as follows:

  1. Probability - conditional probability, independent events
  2. Random Variables - both discrete and continuous
  3. Expected Value - mean, variance, and standard deviation
  4. Multivariate Distributions - covariance and correlation
  5. Sampling - Central Limit Thm, process control, chi-squared and t-distrib.
  6. Statistical Inference - unbiased estimators, confidence intervals
  7. Hypothesis Testing - Type I and II errors, comparing populations
  8. Linear Regression - interpreting the slope, R-squared (goodness of fit)

We will use calculus for a couple of topics but I'll remind you of the ideas, and for those few who haven't had calculus, I'll give you the necessary help so that you can understand what we are doing.

We will cover Chapters 15 through 26 in our textbook before returning to the earlier portions.

After covering the above topics, we will consider how to deal with practical issues involving the display of data and the design of statistical experiments by actually looking at papers in the scientific literature. We will also see how to use computers to produce displays. A paper or project will be required. You will be able to collaborate on such efforts. More on this later.

I recommend that you use the text sparingly - unless you have insomnia ;-) It is better to plunge in. Try to work problems on your own, looking back to see what is there if you get stuck. Basic concepts will be explained in class but not necessarily all of them. Read the book with a critical attitude, skipping the voluminous "explanations" but looking for those points that are confusing. One way to identify such confusions is to see whether you can work the examples given in the text.

Then bring your questions to class!

Calculators are not allowed for use on quizzes and tests - though they may possibly be ok for the final. They won't be needed for the problems I give on quizzes, tests, or homework.

Midterms are scheduled on Feb. 16, March 30, and April 27.

I suggest that you collaborate with some of your classmates. Studying in a group helps prevent you from dozing off and someone else can better quiz you on a concept than you can do it yourself.

Projects for the course

Here is a list of topics I am proposing for us to investigate. Since there are many advocacy groups in the Washington, DC area (government, foundations, advisory boards, and so on), you will find many opportunities to draw on available resources for your studies. Our goal in the following is to develop an accurate statistical picture of the area and to present it clearly. This entails (i) a paper (or article) on each topic, (ii) appropriate software documentation of the results, (iii) where possible a web page including a description of results, pointers to the article, and links to relevant sites, and (iv) presentation of the project to your classmates.

I'm willing to consider alternative proposals. If a group of you (at most 7 or 8) have some topic you wish to explore collectively, you can discuss it with me as an additional topic or as a replacement for one of those below. Each of the topics listed has sociological, technological, medical, and scientific aspects, and perhaps all of them are timely as well.

We will need to split the class into four or five groups, and I will meet with the separate groups to discuss your projects. So look through the following, discuss them together, and think about what you would prefer to do.

By breaking into smaller groups, everyone will get some hands-on experience in the context of contributing to a meaningful project. But the groups will be large enough that everyone can get help from his classmates.

As I mention in class, the sina qua non for the class is _effort_ which you can demonstrate through homework, quizzes, class participation, and your paper or project. The important thing for homework and quizzes is to do them. Good performance can be the difference between two grades but doing badly on quizzes and homework can be overlooked if a student has done well on the tests!

In general, I have found that students who do make a real effort will not be disappointed in their grade - more specifically, you have a good chance of earning at least a "B" though this cannot be guaranteed.

Grades are based on the following approximate formula:

The final is scheduled for TBA.

I expect you to do most of the homework assignments. If you can't be there the day it is due, give it to someone else to hand in for you. Quizzes and homework cannot be made up later. Also, please save your old homework, quizzes, and tests so that you can use them for review.

For homework, be sure to show your work. You can include a second draft but leave in the rough try where you work stuff out. You must show enough that it is clear you actually tried to do the problem - rather than just copied the answer from someone else. When you hand in homework with several pages, staple the pages together so they don't get misplaced.

Homework or quizzes which are not picked up in class will be in a box outside Reiss 258. Be sure to pick them up asap.

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